Organic Grain Market Outlook and Strategies
What’s Really Moving the Organic Grain Market in 2025?
By Sam Oschwald Tilton
OATS Training Specialist and an Organic Advisor at Glacial Drift Enterprises
“The two stable parts of grain prices are—what the price is now, and what do I think it will be in six months—everything else is educated guessing”
- Ryan Koory
As the training specialist for OATS and an independent ag advisor, I am always looking to learn more so that I can help organic advisors and farmers. Understanding the organic grain market and the economics, weather, and world events that drive it can be confusing. So, I was happy when ag economist Ryan Koory joined me for an episode of the Organic Advisor Call Series. Ryan is the VP of Economics at Argus Media, and specializes in the non-GMO and organic grain markets. To keep his finger on the pulse of the organic market, he is constantly speaking with farmers, certifiers, grain buyers, merchandisers, and end users. These details enable Ryan to see the bigger picture of where the market is and where it may be heading.
There are two different types of grain market data, and it’s helpful to know what you’re looking at. The first are long-term market realities. These are the hard numbers that direct long-term organic grain prices and can be quantified and tracked, things like the number of certified acres, the amount of on-farm storage, import trends, and consumer demand. These categories of market information are easier to measure and tend not to change on a dime.
The second type of data is short-term and more fickle. These short-term trends are influenced by human relationships and short-term data. Or, to put it in our contemporary vernacular, “vibes”. How confident do people feel? Are farmers feeling jittery and wanting to lock in current prices? Do buyers feel like prices will drop further, and want to take advantage of those on the spot market? While these vibes can create market rallies or price drops which can be a big deal in the short-term, they don’t often change the long-term trends. As Ryan put it, “There are often times when short-term gossip changes prices for a few months but didn’t change the long-term trends. There’s too many examples of this for me to name and stay humble”. Here’s to humility!
Organic Feed Grade Corn & Soybean Prices (Jan–Jun 2025)
So far in 2025, organic corn prices have stayed below the 5-year average, reflecting ample domestic supply and cautious forward contracting. Soybean prices remain slightly above average, supported by steady demand for imported meal, though well below the highs seen in 2023.
Source: USDA AMS National Organic Grain and Feedstuffs Report, June 11, 2025
One long-term trend is that organic grain has shifted from being a specialty crop to more of a commoditized crop, significantly changing the organic market over the past 10 years. That has also changed how contracts are offered. Until around 2018, buyers wanted to lock in supply and would contract with organic farmers before they even planted. This helped producers lock in a price and supported higher returns. But ah, the free market! These higher prices, among other things, attracted more farmers to plant organic acres.
Now, with a higher supply of organic grain and a more volatile market, prices are lower. As a result, buyers lean toward the spot market to reduce their risk of being locked into long-term contracts that can’t change quickly. This is where long-term market realities and short-term vibes come into play. The spot market and immediate prices are often driven by short-term realities and “market gossip” or “scuttlebutt,” rather than purely by long-term fundamental data like acres planted. The spot market can benefit farmers who have invested in on-farm storage. Having the ability to store grain gives farmers the leverage to wait out low prices and take advantage of price rallies. Unlike their conventional brethren, organic farmers typically cannot bank grain at a local co-op, so on-farm storage for organic grain farmers is a lot more helpful in securing market leverage.
Currently, there are some clear long-term market trends shown in the numbers. Imports have fallen to under 10% of the organic corn supply, which is down sharply since 2017. As a result, domestic production and on-farm storage decisions are now the primary forces behind price moves. Growers with storage and marketing flexibility are better positioned to shape their own outcomes. Unlike corn, organic soybean prices still rely heavily on imported meal, rather than whole beans or oil. Organic soy oil rarely fetches a premium, so imported meal, priced around $800/ton in June 2025, is keeping soybean bids strong, often in the $21–22/bu range through harvest.
Threats of tariffs and general market and policy uncertainty from the Trump administration are affecting organic grain buyers. In the past, buyers often preferred contracts to lock in prices from suppliers. But with the current uncertainty regarding tariffs, organic grain buyers are more hesitant to offer contracts to producers. Instead, they are looking to the spot market in order to take advantage of changing prices.
Even in uncertain times, several key principles remain helpful for organic grain farmers:
Market a full rotation
Rather than relying only on corn or beans for profit, include a wider variety of crops in your rotation to spread risk, and seek out quality buyers for each of those crops. Oats are becoming more popular, and new processing plants are opening in the Midwest.
Focus on fundamentals when marketing
The long-term market trends like meal imports and feed demand matter more than weekly planting updates or short-term weather swings.
Support demand growth
Blocking organic imports may deliver temporary price spikes, but the long-term health of the organic grain sector depends on building sustained domestic demand for organic feed and food.
Maintain the integrity of the USDA organic certification
US organics is an integrity-based program that requires consumers trusting the certification. If the USDA workforce reductions increase organic fraud and affect consumer confidence in the organic label, that will very much change the industry.
Farm in the black
Plan your profitability based on any stable long-term contracts you have or realistic spot market prices. Sure the spot market can be nice, but don’t count on price rallies to lock in your profitability.
I appreciated learning from Ryan on our call series episode. He echoed the advice of many experienced organic farmers I work with, that diversity in income is stability, and it is easier to cut costs than raise your prices—the essence of farming in the black. Hopefully the current interest in Midwestern oats and more organic food-grade processors will drive a better market for small grains, allowing farmers to widen out their rotations in profitable ways. However organic grain is marketed, keep in mind the difference between those short-term vibes and long-term trends.
Want to hear the full conversation with Ryan?
Watch "Organic Grain Market Outlook and Strategies" from our 2025 Organic Advisor Call Series on YouTube.
Listen as a podcast, and dive deeper into market trends shaping 2025.